Election polls in Italy
Updated: Jul 8
Understand why Italy banned the publication of election polls in the fifteen days leading up to the vote.
This Italian rule may seem restrictive at first glance, but it stems from a concern that has been debated for decades by political scientists, jurists, and electoral authorities: ensuring that, in the final stretch of the campaign, voters decide their vote based on the candidates' proposals and not influenced by voter trends indicated by electoral polls.
The silence of the polls.
The rule is stipulated in Law No. 28, of February 22, 2000 , known as the par condicio law , which regulates the balance of political communication during election campaigns.
Article 8 stipulates that, in the fifteen days prior to the election , the dissemination of polls on voting intentions or electoral projections is prohibited, even if they were conducted before the start of the restriction period . The prohibition extends to newspapers, magazines, radio and television stations, news portals, and other media outlets.
Why did Italy adopt this rule?
The Autorità per le Garanzie nelle Comunicazioni (AGCOM) itself explains that the purpose of the rule is to prevent undue conditioning of the electorate, especially those who have not yet decided how to vote.
The concern is that polls released in the final stretch of the campaign could trigger phenomena known to Political Science.
Among them is the bandwagon effect¹ (winner's support effect) , in which part of the electorate begins to support the candidate who appears to be leading in the polls, driven by the perception that this candidate will likely be the winner .
Another phenomenon is the so-called strategic voting , when the voter stops supporting their preferred candidate to vote for another considered more competitive , with the aim of preventing a less desirable outcome from occurring.
Although both phenomena can result from the release of election polls, they are distinct: the first is associated with the tendency to support the leading candidate, while the second stems from a strategic decision based on an assessment of the viability among the competitors.
Added to this is the perception that the election is practically decided even before the polls open , which can influence the behavior of undecided voters, either due to demotivation to participate in the selection process or due to a change in the perception of the competitiveness of the contest.
Although the influence of polls on voter behavior is the subject of extensive academic debate, the Italian legislature has adopted the assumption that this influence may exist and, for this reason, has prohibited the public dissemination of electoral polls during the fifteen days immediately preceding the election.
It is important to note that Italian law does not prohibit conducting polls during this period. The prohibition applies to their public dissemination, allowing parties and candidates to continue using surveys for internal campaign analysis, provided that their results are not disclosed through the media or other publicly accessible channels.
By creating a blackout period for the release of election polls, the legislation seeks to offer citizens a space for reflection in which they are less affected by the results of polls that aim to indicate who is leading the electoral race.
Transparency remains mandatory.
Outside of the prohibited period, Italian law requires a high degree of transparency. All published research must clearly state the institute responsible for conducting it, the client who commissioned the survey, the methodology used, the sample size, the data collection period, and the questions asked to respondents.
Furthermore, this information should be made available on an official Italian government platform, allowing researchers, journalists, and citizens to analyze the methodological quality of each survey.
Who is responsible for any infraction that may occur?
Oversight falls to AGCOM , the communications regulatory authority in Italy.
The sanctions mainly affect those who produce or disseminate the research irregularly, and can extend to electoral research institutes and media outlets through administrative measures provided for in the legislation.
The candidacy itself is not automatically affected by the irregular dissemination of a poll. The logic of the Italian system focuses accountability on those who violate the rules of electoral communication, and not on the candidate who may be favored by the dissemination.
This option seeks to preserve legal certainty, avoiding electoral sanctions without demonstrating the candidate's direct participation in the infraction.
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The Italian model reveals a legitimate concern: protecting the voter's choice-making process precisely when their decision is about to become a vote, preventing the release of polls in the final stretch of the campaign from exerting a disproportionate influence on their evaluation of the candidates.
However, without going into the merits of the sufficiency of the sanctions provided for in Italian legislation, as that is not the subject of this article, it is worth noting that any country intending to adopt a similar mechanism must consider an essential aspect: every legal norm only fully achieves its objectives when it manages to discourage its violation .
If an improperly released poll could influence millions of voters, but the penalty imposed on the responsible party represents a relatively low cost, part of the preventive effect of the legislation may be reduced. In other words, when the potential benefit of the infraction outweighs the cost of the punishment, the practical effectiveness of the rule tends to decrease.
Thus, another aspect to consider in national regulations on the subject would be to establish fines proportional to the impact of the infraction, broad public dissemination of sanctioning decisions, accountability of the contractor when there is proof of their participation in the irregular dissemination, and, in cases of recidivism, more severe administrative sanctions for electoral research institutes and media outlets that insist on violating the legislation.
The true success of an electoral law depends not only on the quality of its principles, but also on its ability to transform those principles into concrete incentives for compliance with the law.
By opting for silence regarding polls in the fifteen days leading up to the election, Italy made a clear institutional choice: to create a period in which public debate focuses less on trends indicated by electoral surveys and more on evaluating the proposals, track record, and capabilities of the candidates. This is an attempt to reduce the influence that last-minute statistical information can exert on undecided voters and, thus, favor a decision based predominantly on each citizen's personal conviction.
Regardless of whether one agrees with this model or not, the Italian experience demonstrates that different democracies seek to improve their electoral processes through distinct paths.
The ongoing challenge lies in finding the balance between two equally important values: ensuring broad access to information and preserving an environment that fosters increasingly conscious, thoughtful voting decisions, free from circumstantial influences.
By Luiz Cincurá
Founder and Editor
Editorial transparency: This article was produced with the support of ChatGPT during the research and preliminary content organization stages. The definition of the editorial approach, critical analysis, technical review, and final writing were carried out by the Editor, who is ultimately responsible for the published content.
Notice
¹ “Bandwagon” is an idiomatic expression used to describe a popular trend, activity, or cause that attracts increasing support. “Jump on the bandwagon” means adopting a trend or joining a group simply because it has become successful or widely accepted.
Sources
ITALIAN GOVERNMENT. Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri – Division for Information and Editorial. Electoral political poll. Accessed on June 28, 2026.
AGCOM. Authoritativeness for ensuring communication. Electoral political poll. Accessed on June 28, 2026.
Italian Parliament. Legge 22 February 2000, n. 28 (Par condicio), Article 8 – Sondaggi politici ed elettorali . Accessed on June 28, 2026.
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